Editorial Mission of THE FUTURIST

As someone who’s spent her entire career and the majority of her life at THE FUTURIST, I smile when I think of myself as the “new” editor. So let me first thank Edward Cornish, our Founding Editor, for his mentorship and for having confidence in me.
Longtime readers will see few significant changes in the approach that this magazine takes in dealing with important issues. We aim for diversity of subject matter and neutrality in coverage. We rely on contributors who volunteer their expertise and work closely with our staff editors to present ideas to our readers in a way that is engaging and thought-provoking.
Our goal will be to ensure that each issue of the magazine covers the following four general areas:

Regions, with a focus on a place, be it Haiti (page 46) or the Moon (pages 34 and 39).

Resources, examining any of a number of critical physical resources, such as food (page 43), water, or energy.

Sectors of the economy, such as health care, education, or technology (page 16)

Methodologies for studying the future, which very often will include conversations with or profiles of foresight pioneers such as the late Daniel Bell (page 63).

Toward that end, we have enhanced the Future Active section (see page 66), edited by Aaron M. Cohen, to cover news for the futurist community. More such stories about news and events are also featured on our Web site. Additionally, Rick Docksai covers the latest future-oriented literature in his Books in Brief column (page 56).
We are also dedicated to delivering more content to members electronically via our free monthly e-mail newsletter, Futurist Update and via our Web site. World Future Society members may now read the text of all articles online and download a PDF reproduction of the magazine.
I hope THE FUTURIST will continue to be a welcome guest in your home, office, school, or wherever else you may be when you are inspired to journey to the future with us.
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Cynthia G. Wagner is Editor of THE FUTURIST.

Burying Fukushima?

On solutions to the nuclear crisis in Japan: If the decision is made to entomb the entire Fukushima complex, as has been most recently recommended by physicist Michio Kaku, at least one constituency needs to be informed: The future.

In the 1990s, the concern among American nuclear physicists was over nuclear waste and how to warn future generations of its existence. What signage would be required? What barbed-wire fence would last for 10,000 years?

From "The 10,000-Year Warning: Alerting Future Civilizations about Our Nuclear Waste" by Gary Kliewer, in the September-October 1992 issue of THE FUTURIST:

"How could you label Pandora's box so that on one would mess with it for 10,000 years?

"The U.S. Department of Energy recently asked a panel of experts to design a marking system that would warn people against digging into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico, where radioactive materials from U.S. nuclear defense operations will be permanently entombed. The markers need to last as long as the danger, and this waste will pose a threat to human health for 300 generations.

...

"The panel confronted a number of challenging questions: How do yoo make a sign that will never fade away? What languages do you use? What surface do you write the message on? How do you relay a clear message to an audience so distant in time that you cannot know its culture, politics, level of technology, or religion?"

One of the answers to those questions drew from ancient wisdom: using symbols like the hieroglyphics carved in Eygptian pyramids, so the messages would convey our warnings pictorially.

Kliewer wrote:

"By setting down in granite symbols the contradictory messages of the creative and destructive powers of our technology, perhaps we are leaving a far better message in the desert than we intend. Our descendants will see that we, a civilization lost in their distant past, cared for their safety. Perhaps they will also see that we understood both the natural world and our place in it. Our warning will imply the hope that they too will look ahead for the well-being of their descendants."

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Cynthia G. Wagner is editor of THE FUTURIST.

Futuring for Haiti: Tools, Not Rules

At our small office in downtown Bethesda, Maryland, the World Future Society welcomed the former Haitian ambassador to the United States, Raymond Joseph. He was accompanied by his son, Paul Joseph (a futurist and activist who arranged the meeting), and Emmanuel Henry, a former vice president for Panasonic. The goal of the meeting was to explore ways that the tools of futuring can help rebuild their nation.

(From left) Raymond Joseph, Timothy C. Mack, Emmanuel Henry, Cynthia G. Wagner, Paul JosephWorld Future Society photograph by Lisa Mathias

Raymond Joseph is an ambitious man. Not only does he want to save his own country, but he wants Haiti to become a role model for other countries written off as “failed states” with no futures.

As one of many would-be candidates in the recent presidential election whose eligibility was revoked (allegedly because he had abandoned his duties as ambassador in order to make a bid for the presidency), Joseph conceded that his ambitions are political. The first thing his country needs, he said, is leadership, but one that is based on trust.

The Josephs and their compatriot Henry, who helped manage the Friends of Raymond Joseph for President campaign in 2010, spoke with Society President Timothy Mack and myself (FUTURIST magazine editor Cindy Wagner) on January 13, one day after the first anniversary of the devastating earthquake that brought international attention to Haiti.

Four days later, exiled dictator Jean-Claude “Baby Doc” Duvalier returned to Haiti accompanied by heavy security, leaving Joseph’s hopes for the future—his country’s and his own—even more uncertain.

Below are excerpts from our dialogue.

Raymond Joseph: [Speaking of the immediate aftermath of the earthquake on Jan. 12, 2010, at which time he was in Washington, D.C., serving as ambassador.] The leadership was absent, they were not to be seen anywhere, so all of a sudden I became the face of Haiti for the world. And also I had to take the first decisions in the first 48 hours, to get help to the country.

It’s based on that, quite a few of my friends, both Haitian and foreign, came to me and said, “You know what, we need new leadership in Haiti. You should consider the president’s candidacy,” which I did. And for no reason at all, they disqualified me.

Mack: Let me speak frankly to you. I think that they felt they had lots of reasons, because you posed a threat. You were too well known and too popular.

Raymond Joseph: Yes because of that I was a threat. Yesterday I wrote a piece in the Wall Street Journal, and in there I say what needs to be done if we’re going to get Haiti back on track. And what I said should be done is for the president who’s there now, whose term ends February 7th, to exit on February 7th with his team and not try to hang on as he wants to until May 14th. Because in three more months, he will not be able to accomplish what he could not do in five years.

Now, what I seek in government for Haiti is a large coalition, and that’s what I’m working for, that’s why I stayed in the country after they disqualified me. They thought I was going to go back abroad. I did not do that.

I feel that we need to look at ways of changing Haiti. And to do that, we have to change the leadership. That’s what I’m working on.

But besides changing the leadership of Haiti, people know that I have some ideas for the future. One of the ideas I have is about energy, what are we going to do about energy, and another major idea for us is reforestation, and what we’re going to do about that.

And to get these things moving on, I feel that we have to entice a percentage of Haitian intellectuals and professionals living abroad … and according to the IDB, the Inter-American Development Bank, that’s 83% of our intellectuals and professionals living abroad. I feel we have to entice a percentage of them to come back.

Wagner: To reverse the brain drain.

Raymond Joseph: To reverse the brain drain.

...

Wagner: Part of the enticement, of bringing the intellectuals back into Haiti, has to be from Haiti itself.

Raymond Joseph: Right.

...

Wagner: But what you face is a collection of problems, and the decision has to be made, what do you tackle first?

Mack: And of course the biggest problem you face is leadership.

Raymond Joseph: That’s it, that’s it.

Mack: And how do you get the strong leadership that is necessary to make this change even be considered. ... What are your next steps? What are you hoping to accomplish in the next few weeks?

Raymond Joseph: My next steps. That’s what I’ve been working on. Since I was bumped off the ballot, I have stayed in Haiti and worked with various candidates that even some who were running, and some who were not running, and looking towards having a large coalition for future change. That’s my goal.

...

So, the idea that I have tried to do in the past of building a coalition of ethical leaderships have been successful. Since they have bumped me off the ballot as for the presidency, I’ve come back. Now we have quite a few candidates for presidency. I want to tell them you cannot all be president of Haiti, but you can all work for change.

Mack: Yes. You can all be friends of Haiti.

Raymond Joseph: Exactly. So, let’s work together to do this. Immediately, the next thing I’m doing is to help annul the elections that took place, which was not an election. Now, that’s what I’m working on right now.

Mack: Are you also working on observers for the coming elections too, or is that something that will happen no matter what?

Raymond Joseph: We haven’t gotten there yet. However, the first democratic elections in Haiti, which the press talked about, in 1990, December 16th, I was the one that signed the agreement with the OAS back then. I was the representative of the country to OAS, and the UN took that agreement and expanded on it, and we had 3,000 observers in Haiti the week of the elections. So I’m used to doing that. And I will want to, [in] the elections coming up, after we get through this harrow here, to have the best observer teams. I brought President Carter to Haiti in 1990, and others. I want to get to that point in the next elections coming up. Which will probably be in a year, because this thing here that they’re trying to patch up, they cannot patch it up. They’re trying to patch it up at the level of the presidential elections, however, the fraud was widespread. It was at the legislative [level] also.

Mack: And that may be very self-defeating in the sense that a weak government does not last, especially if that government is clearly founded on fraud.

Raymond Joseph: Exactly. ...

To be frank with you, since the earthquake, Haiti has had too many NGOs, so much so that now they’re calling Haiti “The Republic of NGOs.” They’re saying ten thousand. ... There’s no coordination, ... and you don’t see what they accomplish.

Wagner: There’s duplication and gaps.

Mack: Right, right, the gaps are very important, but also they are there to accomplish what they are built for, which is their own, their own …

Paul Joseph: … agendas.

Mack: Not just agendas, their own pride. You’ve seen that. You know, NGOs are very proud. And they are very moral, but not always in a good way. “Maybe you should change the way you live your life because I say so.” Too much of that in NGOs. [chuckling in agreement] I think that what we bring is tools for the people of Haiti to use, as opposed to rules for the people of Haiti to follow.

Henry: That’s well said.

Raymond Joseph: Good. That’s well said. I will take that. [chuckling] I want to take that sentence.

Henry: And when you have ten thousand NGOs, everybody wants to pull you in different directions. “My direction is better, yours is better” and nothing is accomplished, nothing is achieved.

Mack: But we’re very, very pleased that you would come here and talk to us about this, and we want to be as helpful as we can. That’s my answer.

Raymond Joseph: And I’m going to tell you, also, Paul has tried to get me to talk to various people, and you know …

Mack: Some you say Yes, some you say No.

Raymond Joseph: When he talked about you, I said I want to come. Not because I know you’re going to help me solve the problem right away, but that you can help me think about the future.

Raymond Joseph

World Future Society photograph by C. G. Wagner

Finding Lost Futures

Dang, I've been at the magazine so long that I not only can't find an article from way back when, I can't even remember the decade it was from.

For the record, I was looking for a story (with illustrations) on converting the backyards of all the houses in a typical suburban block into a common area for gardening. A great local-farming solution. But what issue was it in? I couldn't remember the author or the title, and I'm pretty sure we ran the story long before ProQuest began digitizing our stuff.

Anyway, short story long, while looking for that article, I found these cartoons from a 1987 article, "How to Think Like an Innovator" by Denis Waitley and Robert Tucker. The art work was by an illustrator named Spyder Webb, but it was based on sketches I provided him.

I guess I thought that was really hysterical at the time... setting up the expectation that the little innovator was going to invent the wheeled suitcase but then actually coming up with a game show. HAHA! The lesson is (I suppose) that the process of innovative thinking can lead you in a variety of directions.

And even if I didn't find the future I was looking for, it's all good.

Love, hosaa,
futuring, personally and otherwise

Michael Jackson and The Futurist

The Futurist magazine has so rarely covered celebrities that I could almost instantly pull up the article in which we used a photo of Michael Jackson.



It was the August 1984 issue, and we used MJ as a representative of one of the "Nine American Lifestyles," an article by eminent social scientist and futurist Arnold Mitchell of SRI International.

MJ represented what Mitchell termed the "I-Am-Me" generation. The caption reads:

Entertainer Michael Jackson symbolizes young people moving away from the outer-directed values of their parents and turning inward to find unique ways of expressing themselves. The confusion and contradiction of this "I-Am-Me" group is evident in their tendency to be simultaneously exhibitionistic and demure, narcissistic and self-effacing, confident and insecure, innovative and conforming, says Mitchell.

The only other celebrities whom The Futurist has featured (to my best recollection) are:

* Actress Ellen Burstyn, who helped fete futurist/inventor R. Buckminster Fuller at the World Future Society's 1982 conference (her photo with him appeared in our conference coverage in the October 1982 issue).

* Pop princess Britney Spears, whose image was used to illustrate the growing influence of pop music over traditional American music and the potential future demise of folk music. (November-December 2003, World Trends & Forecasts, "Where, Oh Where, Have the Good Old Songs Gone?")

* The Black Eyed Peas, whose anti-hate rap anthem "Where Is the Love?" was cited as a sign of a possible values shift in hip-hop culture. (July-August 2004, Optimistic Outlooks, "Values Shift for Urban Music?")

* Clay Aiken, whose use of the celebrity spotlight to focus attention on including individuals with special needs into programs with "typical peers" earned him recognition as a Visionary. (September-October 2004, "Enabling the Disabled to Serve")

Of course, the unexpected and untimely death of the "King of Pop" serves to remind all of us that our pop culture icons are more than merely symbols of our civilization. They are very much human beings, who live, love, and struggle for the best futures possible. Just like the rest of us.

ETA - gosh, how could I have forgotten Arianna Huffington! Pictured with Al Franken during their stint with Comedy Central, Ms. Huffington illustrated the concept of "celebritizing" oneself to improve paychecks. (June-July 1998, World Trends & Forecasts, "Marketing to a Celebrity-Obsessed Society")

Forecasts in Hindsight

The May-June 2009 issue of THE FUTURIST is on the way to subscribers soon from the World Future Society. Here's a sneak peak at the Future View editorial:

Forecasts in HindsightBy Cynthia G. Wagner

Every now and then, we at THE FUTURIST are asked to look back at previous forecasts to see how we did. Many magazines have turned back the clock briefly to recall what topics interested the readers (or at least the editors) 10, 20, 50, or even 100 years ago.

So a curious thing happened when I picked up the May-June 1989 issue of THE FUTURIST to see what we were forecasting then. I had an overwhelming sense of déjà vu.

In the Future View editorial “Tomorrow? Who Cares?” economics professor Thomas Oberhofer wrote of the consequences of short-term focused and greed-driven financial maneuvering by businesses and individuals alike. He attributed this phenomenon to impatience.

“When we are impatient with the little things, it is hard to be patient with the big things,” he wrote. “We see this in many areas of contemporary society. Financial markets in the 1980s have been driven by merger activity and corporate raiding as a means of capturing value. This is in lieu of the old-fashioned way of investing in productive capacity and building a business. Consumers have plunged into debt to enjoy a fling today, often with limited concern for the longer-term consequences of their actions. And the American people have tolerated the creation of massive federal indebtedness and the international erosion of their financial power in the world economy.”

Oberhofer advised economic policies that created incentives for patience and disincentives for immediate gratification, though he noted that implementing and enforcing such policies would require a change in the cultural mind-set.

Looking around the international financial landscape just now, I think I can safely say that cultural mind-sets are very difficult to change: Impatience persists, exacerbated by accelerating change in all directions and by a proliferation of distractions.

Several other topics we covered 20 years ago ring familiar today, too, including the cover story, “Cars That Know Where They’re Going” by Robert L. French, a consultant on vehicular navigation systems. Indeed, as he foresaw, the use of GPS in cars today is widespread.

“Once a sufficient fraction of all cars are equipped with navigation systems,” French predicted, “even unequipped drivers will benefit because traffic will be spread uniformly over the road network.” Unfortunately, this forecast has not quite met with success, though perhaps today’s traffic congestion is not as bad as it could have been without drivers’ ability to better manage their personal routes.

What else was on THE FUTURIST’s mind? Among the other feature articles in the May-June 1989 issue were “Renewable Energy: Power for Tomorrow” by Robert L. San Martin, “Human Factors: The Gap Between Humans and Machines” by Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown, and “A New Era of Activism: Who Will Frame the Agenda?” by Rafael D. Pagán Jr.

Pagán foresaw the impacts of the Information Age creating better-informed and better-connected citizens, who would pursue an active interest in improving public and private institutions. But he warned of fallout from anti-corporate movements: “Leaving the authorship of public policy to activists is irresponsible,” he argued. “Corporations can find a way to retrieve eroded public trust, can be dynamic participants in the debates of our time, and can fairly balance the social contract between themselves and consumers.”

Pagán was clearly optimistic on corporate responsibility, both for self-regulation and for stewardship. “The doctrine of the stewardship of the earth has developed dramatically in the last two decades,” he noted. “Now we are coming to see ourselves as caretakers, and we are holding ourselves responsible for the way we use our resources.… The choice for industry is no longer whether it will be responsible, but how.”

Our World Trends & Forecasts section likewise covered topics that continue to have an impact on our lives and futures, such as family–work balance, investments in children’s health and education, and the phenomenon of “environmental refugees”—entire groups of people forced into migrating due to insurmountable environmental problems. As Hurricane Katrina painfully illustrated, some problems just cannot be planned away, but they can (and must) still be planned for and, if possible, prevented.

And that lesson continues to be the principal subject matter of THE FUTURIST and the World Future Society.

About the Author
Cynthia G. Wagner is managing editor of THE FUTURIST.

For further discussion of financial manias and their causes and impacts, see Chapter 11, “The Past as a Guide to the Future,” of Futuring: The Exploration of the Future by Edward Cornish (WFS, 2004), which may be ordered from Amazon.com.

Back in the old office, back in the day.